Validating a dynamic population microsimulation model: Recent experience in Australia

Available published research on microsimulation tends to focus on the results of policy simulations rather than upon validation of the models and their outputs. Dynamic population microsimulation models, which age an entire population through time for some decades, create particular validation challenges. This article outlines some of the issues that arise when attempting to validate dynamic population models, including changing behaviour, the need to align results with other aggregate ‘official’ projections, data quality and useability. Drawing on recent experience with the construction of the new Australian Population and Policy Simulation Model (APPSIM), the article discusses the techniques being used to validate this new dynamic population microsimulation model.Dynamic microsimulation, validation, model output, usability

Predicting the need for aged care services at the small area level: the CAREMOD spatial microsimulation model

Most industrialised societies face rapid population ageing over the next two decades, including sharp increases in the number of people aged 85 years and over. As a result, the supply of and demand for aged care services has assumed increasing policy prominence. The likely spatial distribution of the need for aged care services is critical for planners and policy makers. This article describes the development of a regional microsimulation model of the need for aged care in New South Wales, a state of Australia. It details the methods involved in reweighting the 1998 Survey of Disability, Ageing and Carers, a national level dataset, against the 2001 Census to produce synthetic small area estimates at the statistical local area level. Validation shows that survey variables not constrained in the weighting process can provide unreliable local estimates. A proposed solution to this problem is outlined, involving record cloning, value imputation and alignment. Indicative disability estimates arising from this process are then discussed.Disability, ageing, spatial analysis, aged care, cloning; imputation; alignment; NATSEM

Challenges and Solutions in Constructing a Microsimulation Model of the Use and Costs of Medical Services in Australia

This paper describes the development of a microsimulation model =HealthMod‘ which simulates the use and costs of medical and related services by Australian families. Australia has a universal social insurance scheme known as =Medicare‘ which provides all Australians with access to free or low-cost essential medical services. These services are provided primarily by general practitioners as well as specialist doctors but also include diagnostic and imaging services. Individuals may pay a direct out-of pocket contribution if fees charged for services are higher than the reimbursement schedule set by government. HealthMod is based on the Australian 2001 National Health Survey. This survey had a number of deficiencies in terms of modelling the national medical benefits scheme. The article outlines three major methodological steps that had to be taken in the model construction: the imputation of synthetic families, the imputation of short-term health conditions, and the annualisation of doctor visits and costs. Some preliminary results on the use of doctor services subsidised through Australia‘s Medicare are presented.Economic microsimulation modelling, medical services, use and costs, Australia

Methodological Issues in Spatial Microsimulation Modelling for Small Area Estimation

In this paper, some vital methodological issues of spatial microsimulation modelling for small area estimation have been addressed, with a particular emphasis given to the reweighting techniques. Most of the review articles in small area estimation have highlighted methodologies based on various statistical models and theories. However, spatial microsimulation modelling is emerging as a very useful alternative means of small area estimation. Our findings demonstrate that spatial microsimulation models are robust and have advantages over other type of models used for small area estimation. The technique uses different methodologies typically based on geographic models and various economic theories. In contrast to statistical model-based approaches, the spatial microsimulation model-based approaches can operate through reweighting techniques such as GREGWT and combinatorial optimization. A comparison between reweighting techniques reveals that they are using quite different iterative algorithms and that their properties also vary. The study also points out a new method for spatial microsimulation modellingBayesian prediction approach; combinatorial optimisation; GREGWT; microdata; small area estimation; spatial microsimulation

Assessing Poverty and Inequality at a Detailed Regional Level: New Advances in Spatial Microsimulation

poverty, inequality, measurement, Australia

The Breeding Ecology of Homed Puffins Fratercula comiculata in Alaska.

The Horned Puffin {Fratercula corniculata) is one of three North Pacific puffin species. Horned Puffins almost always nest amongst boulders and in rock crevices. This makes access to nest-sites and chicks difficult and, as a result, sample sizes are small for many their breeding parameters. I studied the breeding ecology of Homed Puffins at Duck Island, Alaska, over a period of five years (1995-1999) in order to improve our baseline knowledge of this species and the variability in its breeding ecology. Adults fed their chicks primarily on sandlance {Ammodytes hexapterus), which comprised over 90% of the diet. Chick survival to fledging was generally high (83-97%), and there was no apparent difference among years in breeding success, despite evidence of poor food availability in 1998. There was, however, a large range of chick growth rates and fledging ages. Chick mass growth rate was lowest in 1998, and chicks also fledged at youngest ages in that year. The impacts of reduced food supply on growth differed between different body components, suggesting differential allocation of energy and nutrients into the growth of different body structures. There was no difference among years in either chick diet or the mass of food loads bought to the colony by adults. Daily counts of Homed Puffins attending the colony were made throughout the breeding season in three consecutive years in order to examine the diurnal, seasonal and annual variation in colony attendance, and the implications of this variation for population monitoring. Peak diurnal attendance occurred between 2030-2130. Despite high seasonal and annual variation in colony attendance, overall mean numbers of birds present at the colony during both incubation and chick-rearing did not differ among years. There was greater variability in attendance during chick- rearing than during incubation, indicating that counts conducted during incubation may provide the better index of breeding population size

Baby Boomers - doing it for themselves

  History, some might say, has been kind to the baby boomers. They have enjoyed affordable housing, access to free education, often generous welfare benefits and frequently favourable employment markets. Now the baby boomers – those people aged between about 45 and 61 years – will have to respond in a very way to the challenges of an aging population, where the consequences of their actions now and throughout their lives will have ramifications for the generations to follow. Their response to the issue of Australia’s rapidly ageing population – in the context of the progressive public policy changes that have occurred over the past two decades – will in many ways determine how our nation copes with changing demographic forces and could set a template how future generations handle their own transition into retirement. But will history continue to favour the boomers? This edition of the AMP.NATSEM Income and Wealth Report takes stock of the baby boomers’ situation – their family structures, their work patterns, their wealth and their spending – to ask: how well placed are they financially answer the challenges of their march to retirement

Ann Harding

Harding shares two book stories: one from her son\u27s visits to the Myers\u27 home and one from an alumni event in Phoenix, AZ. Harding also comments on the effects of Myers\u27 personal touches like handwritten notes and surprise office visits and remarks on the impact of his personal characteristics on people